Biddle on contingencies

I'm finally getting a chance to take a look at the recent CFR "contingency memo" on Iraq by Steve Biddle (PDF). It is clearly thought-out and worth reading, and I support, in broad contour, his conclusion that "going slow" on withdrawal makes the most sense from a clear consideration of US interests, the potential for hasty withdrawal to upset the apple cart, and the lack of options for the US to re-intervene effectively given a dramatic downturn in the situation. But I would take issue with the following points:

1) The political picture he describes of Iraq is one of an unstable patchwork of a bunch of small ceasefires with SOIs, Shi'a militias, and other assorted badguys. There's obviously some truth in this depiction, but it misses a broader point: the newfound legitimacy of the Iraqi government enabled in part by the Surge. The positive political stability generated by the Surge was a result of the improvement in security allowing the old Iraqi state, and the habits of mind associated with it (what GEN Petraeus calls "muscle memory") to reemerge. Psychologically speaking, people have returned to having a kind of implicit, habitual belief in the state, and confidence that it will be the context for future political development in Iraq.

Sure, to arrive there, the US military had to make a bunch of separate peaces with groups that were in no way willing to be part of the new political order, but the political effects of the Surge did not stop there. The "patchwork quilt" model does not reflect the quantum mental leap associated with the return of the state among the public. It's not that Biddle is being unduly pessimistic--it's that the source of his "guarded optimism" is that for the multitude of militant groups "objective military conditions continue to favor ceasefire over open warfare." It's the wrong mental model.

2) He's wrong in his categorical characterization of Moslawi Arabs's "distrust of a Shiite-controlled government," at least if he means the current government. Of all of Hadba's many suitors, I'd say Maliki has the best shot of scoring an alliance with them at the moment, especially if he feels strong enough to say no to ISCI.